Who believe market can not be forecasted?

The confirmations continue, PFS continues to surprise, it was expected an up push after 24 November, and also in this public Blog I said this... you can see it also from the chart in the precedent Post, where there is a up push from 24 November. And today we go up up up...

Do you continue to believe that it's impossible to forecast the stock market? I never believed it, and after years of work now I know I was right...

Know where market are going and know what is next trend, with high probability to be right, is very useful to be able to make money in a environment where the profits are reserved to a very few people.

CIAO

The PFS forecasted also this descent...

The down push is arrived. This is the forecast that I posted in 14 November:


The descent was forecasted perfectly from the PFS. Yesterday american market was closed, so we will see if today will be the right day to stop, for now, this fall... And then what is next for the PFS?

CIAO

Do we are near a possible up trend?

In the precedent Post, on the Italian Public I Am In Borsa Blog, in November 6th Vito ask me a real update for the Public Blog. This was my answer about the future in 7 November:

AT THE MOMENT the forecast are looking for a weak phase until the second half of November, then it is possible to see a Low for a rally in the end of the year. In these days I wait a down push, but not a crash. For a future up trend it's fundamental consolidate above 1255 points and 1277 points, that are the most important Long Term prices.

The market followed this scenario with a lateral move in the first part of the month and a descent with a down push in the last days, until the second half of November. So, if all should continue to work as forecasted it could become true the scenario for the end of the year, and it could start soon.

My Post in October 4, Tuesday

This is the Post of my Private Blog in October 4, Tuesday, where I indicate a buy point in case S&P500 go above 1097 points:

Ok, we arrive to my very important minimum target at 1095 points circa, it was more than 1 month that I'm waiting this price. Now the forecast say that we are near the Low. I would prefer to see the S&P500 Index to remain low until at least tomorrow, but it must not stay remain under 1096 for more than 3 days. Start to accumulate could be dangerous, we can not be sure that market will rise, but my work say that the probability is very high.

Prices: at 1083-1085 there is a mid term price that statistically push the market up in the next days. Attention that it is not a precise price, market could stop for 2 days under this area before rally.
1096 is a very very important mid term price. Consolidation above this area will be a buy signal. Statistically market should not go under 1066 points. Another mid-term price at 1083.
Today key prices are little far: 1114 and 1069. Others key prices but not so strong at 1074.5 and 1097. I could buy with consolidation above 1097. but stop loss under it. I want use patience, this trade will be for a mid term position, not for only some day. I would prefer wait tomorrow, but above 1097 I will try to enter Long with something.

Market did a Low at 1074.77 that was one my key price. We bought above 1097 points, as I indicate. This is the S&P500 chart today:

Why do I bought above 1097? In my course The Law of Cause and Effect, that you can buy in the site SacredScience.com I explain why this is a fundamental price where you can expect an important move. This is a tool that are working very well in the last 11 years on the S&P500.

New lows, read here...

Read under this post, last my comment, what I say about the August 9 Low: "I give a possible low in August 9-10, and it is the actual lower low (August 9). But I think we will test or break it in the next 1-2 months. " What happen? Yesterday market break the August Low. It was not bad to know in the last 2 month that we must wait new low before to buy.

CIAO

SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER...

It is passed long time from my last Post, I will try to make up for the lost time showing the precise strategy of September.

I leave you in last July. In August I was in India, so I was not able to look the maket. I give a forecast that it gave a descent in the first days of August, but I was not expecting a crash. I give a possible low in August 9-10, and it is the actual lower low (August 9). But I think we will test or break it in the next 1-2 months. In my private Blog I don't lost money during the crash, becouse I advice to not trade. Volatility too much High, hard contitions to manage the trade, strong gaps.
But now we will see how are going September, where I re-start my work after my trip in India.

First trade following my forecast was in September 6. The perfection of this trade help us, but not every time is so easy. This is what I write in the post September 6:

I gave the forecast in the last 2 posts.
Yesterday market was closed, but we saw how the break below 1154 in the Future pushed market down.
I'm waiting a brief rally, and then a new descent. Key price area to take Long position is at 1154-1158.
Interesting also is 1140-1143 points for a rally. If market will touch 1140-1141 points I will enter Long with confirmations above 1143 points, with 4 points stop-loss maximum, or I will wait market above 1154-1158 points.

You can see the chart (above) where the Low was 1140.13. So I bought at 1143 and I put a stop-loss under 1139. A trade without pain. A lot of word are spent in the posts, also in my posts, but the attention must remain on the strategy from the prices. The price is the King. He will decide if you will gain or not.

You can understand how I work from this next post, September 7:

Yesterday we saw how price strategy and forecast work together. A rally was expected, so we wait a price confirmation to trade following the forecast. Hence, yesterday market did a Low at 1140, and then the buy start when market break up 1143 points, like from yesterday instructions, with a stop of 4 points. Now index is at 1180, +37 points in one day. Volatility is dangerous, but also precious if you guess the direction. Now I follow the trend and I put a stop-profit under area 1159, so if market start to fall, I will gain 15 points from ma Long trade. 1159 is a key price for today. Another key price at 1187 points, where I will close another part of my trade, leaving the rest Long. I want close soon this trade becouse from next week I want concentrate my effort to enter SHORT. 1190-1191 is also a mid term price area, but I think we will break this level to attain higher prices.

Here you can see the strategy of the trade. Not too much words, charts.... but numbers. My Blog is for take profit, and this mean to be aware that market can do anything he want, so the strategy become fundamental after a good trade where we are in profit following the forecast.

Next day, September 8, I decide to close all with the Future at 1195 (Index S&P500 at 1197) becouse I was waiting a pullback. And this is what's happened. Here the post of September 8:

I close now (Future Sept at 1195) all my Long trade, and I wait next week for a possible new descent. I exit now becouse my study indicate a possible pause of this up push from today. Also market ran 55 points in only 2 days, and it is no bad. At 1190-1191 there is a interesting mid term price. Under it there is, at 1187.5, a key price. Under this level it's better remain in pause without Long positions. Above we find 1206.4, that it's a interesting key price. At the moment my prefered scenario is to see higher price next week where we can try a Short trade. Last trade was very good, we start very well the work after the holydays, but attention, use always patience.

Market stop his run and fall like I forecasted, and we arrive at September 12. Indications are clear: I'm waiting a rally but only the price will give me the signal to enter the market, and this signal is above 1146 points. Market will stay around 1146 point in this day, and I try 2 trade in lost before I see a third break above this level and market start to run up, and I was of course in the market. Read with attention the post of September 12, this is a clear strategy indication following the forecast of a rally:

September 12-14 seems to be a important time window, and my models are waiting a possible rally in these days, so it's possible that we will see a low. Of course I was not waiting a descent so strong, but I hope that now you understood: this is not a problem. Trading is a speculative activity. Doesn't matter if it fall less or more, important is to be in the market when we are right and to be Flat when we are not right. Easy. Impossible now is to follow all the movements, too much risk. This morning USA wake up at -1,5%, we need to be cautious. Volatility is High, attention. There are different key prices: at 1122-1123 points there is a interesting key price with a mid term price. If market hit it, it's possible to trade Long with trend confirmations above it. Stop loss under it. At 1118 there is also a mid term price that can be a good support. Above we find another key price at 1146. At 1129 there is a price that, not precise, statistically represent a good up push for the market. This morning Future hit this area. My strategy remain for a Long trade above 1129, or above 1122-1123 using the key price. At 1129 I have not a precise key price, for this reason I will enter Long only if I will see a trend up confirmation ( 2 or 5 minutes chart). Of course I will not trade if market doesn't hit these prices. This is my discipline, I'm not in a hurry. In case of rally, I will use 1146 key prices to enter Long, with confirmation above it. It is not sure that will be today the perfect day to enter Long, it's possible we must wait tomorrow. If market continue to fall, it's possible to try a SHORT trade under 1122 after break down confirmation, with stop above this area.

The condition verified is highlighted, and if you check the chart, the rally start in September 12, and we was in the market.

In Sempteber 13 market arrive to hit 1170 points. Here I give the indication to exit if market go under 1167.5 (+20 points in profit) and try to enter Short with a stop-loss above this area. Market break down 1167.5 but then it return above it and we lost 2 points. This is my work. Little loss and leave to run the gain.

Now we pay attention at the post of September 15 becouse it is very important. From some day I'm saying that I'm waiting a new descent, underlineing that after September 19 I see a strong down push. But I'm not sure of the perfect day to enter Short, so I check the key prices in case of important breaks. September 15 I show how I tryed to enter short in 2 situantions but with 2 loss. This 2 loss are very lettle. This shows how is possible to trade with little stop-loss with my key prices. I give my key prices every day. This is the post of September 15 with the chart:

Yesterday market continued the rally. I tryed 2 Short trade at 1170.5 and at 1192, my 2 key prices. But all closed with little loss, no pain. I'm happy to show the chart of yesterday with my key price. You can see that we lost no more than 3 points. This is what mean to cut your loss. For this volatility I would advice to exit with some profit when you are gaining 3-4 points, so if the market stop you, you can exit with no loss. I'm waiting a imminent descent, so I wait some break down of my key price to enter Short. Important key price at 1171-1172, but also 1193 is a good key price, but I will use it only after good confirmation. At 1191 there are a good mid term price. I think that we are very near the High, in this actual price area. If market shoud continue to go up, I don't think it will run very much. So I wait some break down to enter Short. Above we find 1216-1216.5 key price.

Brief comment in September 16, but we will see firsts profits of this forecast:

There are no news. I remain Flat. Prices to enter short are 1194 (with mid term prices at 1191) and 1217-1218.5. If we hit this last price I will enter short with Stop-Loss above it. In this area there are also important mid term prices. I'm waiting a descent that should start today or Monday.

Market will do a High at 1220.06, so I enter Short when market return under 1217, like my reader know, with stop-loss above the High. This trade will give us a first profit in this day, where I advise to close 1/3 of the trade with a 10 points in gain.

September 19, Monday, there is a very important update, and here you can understand how is important the strategy to take profit from the market:

I'm waiting a confirmation of a break under 1190. If it should not happen, I put a stop-profit if I see confirmation of a break up above key price 1196.4. But I will re-enter Short if market return under this level.

The market will be not able to confirm a break under 1190 points, so I decide with wisdom to close my trade when market return above 1197 points, with a gain of 19 points (chart above). Next day market will go up, and it will do a double High. But I'm not happy, my analisys say me that market should go down.
Here the important September 20 Post:

Situation presents some doubt with the forecast. Indications for a general down trend until October/November remain open. The doubt is to see another brief up push until next week. We will see if the mid term price at 1216-1220 will be able to stop this up push. I was waiting a continuation of the descent, but yesterday we saw that the mid term price at 1190-1191 have supported the market, and this push me to take the decision to exit above the key price 1196.4. Now we remain Flat waiting the key prices. Price will reveal us the direction to follow. More important key prices today are 1179 and 1224.3. This last, with the mid term price at 1226.7, is a very good price reference. If we arrive to touch it, we can enter short in case of resistence, or enter Long in case of a break up. I want trade in the down side becouse my studies say me that the general trend is down. There are key prices (but not strong) at 1197.2 and 1219.5. I will use these price to enter Short with a little stop-loss above they. Important is to enter only after confirmations of a trend into action under these prices.

Needless to say the High is been 1220 points, and when I see a weakness looking a intraday chart after we touch this level (my key price was 1219.5) I entered Short with a stop-loss above the High. Market start to fall, and in a strong way. The days after we manage the trade following the downtrend, where at the end I closed all this trade at 1133 Index points, from 1217-1218. I can say that this was not a bad trade! :)

In these days the situation is this: September 23, Friday I close all at 1133 becouse I was waiting a brief rally. We see the forecasted rally, I tryed to take another short trade in Monday with 2 trade in loss, 3 points lost for every trade. This is not so painful in reason that the week before we gain 80 points. And now... we will see.

See you

Daniele

HERE HOW WE TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE UP PUSH

Do you know someone that it's really able to do forecast on the market? I mean real forecast and not strategy?

It was not bad buy in June 27? And also know it in advance?
Or buy in July 18?

Here the S&P500 chart:
This is what I wrote with a view to June 27:

June 2: I don't take Long position becouse we are in a phase where the forecast indicate a favourit general down trend until second half of June. At the moment I remain SHORT with a STOP-LOSS at 1328 points, that is my entry level. (market push down until mid June, and restart a rally in June 27)

June 13: It will be interesting pay attention about the prices to understand the best points to buy for next up trend, and at the moment the forecast say that could be a good buy point between 20-27 June.

June 21: We see the rally that my models waited, very well! I don't know if the Low that my forecast see for June 27 will be lower, but theoretically this momentary rally should finish in the next 1-2 days... Market continue to swing around 1270 points, if we will consolidate now above this level, with a Low around June 27, it could be a strong opportunity for a BUY. I wait...

June 22: Now the forecast say that there should be a stop of the rally from today or tomorrow, and then a re-start of the rally from June 27 +/-.
Well, there are not news, all are going like the forecast say. Like I said yesterday, I began to accumulate something, but for aggressive trade I prefer wait until, at least, June 24, better June 27.

And this is what I wrote with a view to July (July 17 was Sunday. The Low day is July 18, Monday):

July 5:...paying attention at July 17, possible change in trend.

July 12: About the forecast, I would prefer wait 15-18 July to take aggressive Long trade.

July 14: A descent until tomorrow or Monday could be a good buy opportunity

July 18: Market arrive to my July 17 with a latheral/Low. This would confirm a statistic for a next rally.
I'm LONG with a stop under today's Low.

My work is to create a strategy price to follow the forecast. Always wait confirmation, becouse nobody is infallible. But also the forecast alone is not so bad!

CIAO