IS REAL TRADING POSSIBLE?

As always... I'm sorry for my bad english...

In my opinion there is no a better way to know something than know it directly. And I demostrated to myself that is possible to take profit from the market with a real trading (after years and years of sufferings). Blog is demostrating it, and every subscriber can attest it.
But the problem is the trader, not the market. Are you really sure that you are a disciplined man, with patience, without greed? So, are you really ready to trade? If you don't know yourself, if you are not able to have discipline and patience, in the market you are dead. This is my opinion. And I'm died a lot of times in the past.
I will show you an account that I'm managing, I have a records of all my trades on the contract of the S&P500 Future exp. March 2012, the contract ESH2. This is an account that I'm managing for another person (in my family), using generally only 1 contract, but in exceptional cases I used 2 or 3 contracts. You can see that from 14 December 2011 to 14 March 2012, (3 months) I gained 4782.82 Euro, that is around 6250 US Dollar. I think this is not bad, considering that I was working with a account that started with 14.000 US Dollar.

These are all the win&loss trades that I did on this contract, with 141 buy/sell. I pay around 3 Euro/buy or sell per contract. So I paid 141x3€x2=846 Euro in commissions.
In this exceptional case I show this records, so who is interested can calculate the avarage loss, the avarage win, the bigger loss, the bigger win... and to convince himself that if you don't cut the losses you will ALWAYS LOSE MONEY ON THE MARKET. This is the bigger lesson that you can never learn. It is possible to be a winner trader, but you have to accept the reality... cut the losses

ESH2				MINISP500 MAR12	Futures	141		4.782,82
Simbolo	Data operazione	Pzo medio Apertura		Pzo medio Chiusura	Mercato	Quantità	Valuta	P&L €
ESH2	14/12/2011	1.214,25		1.215,50	Futures	1	USD	48,1
ESH2	14/12/2011	1.216,50		1.210,25	Futures	1	USD	-240,51
ESH2	15/12/2011	1.211,75		1.218,75	Futures	1	USD	268,84
ESH2	15/12/2011	1.214,38		1.215,50	Futures	2	USD	86,41
ESH2	16/12/2011	1.219,50		1.219,75	Futures	1	USD	9,57
ESH2	16/12/2011	1.219,00		1.215,50	Futures	1	USD	-133,96
ESH2	16/12/2011	1.219,00		1.215,50	Futures	1	USD	-133,96
ESH2	19/12/2011	1.211,00		1.216,75	Futures	1	USD	220,49
ESH2	19/12/2011	1.208,50		1.205,50	Futures	1	USD	-115,04
ESH2	21/12/2011	1.208,50		1.231,00	Futures	1	USD	861,8
ESH2	21/12/2011	1.224,25		1.237,00	Futures	1	USD	488,36
ESH2	22/12/2011	1.240,00		1.243,75	Futures	1	USD	143,71
ESH2	23/12/2011	1.246,25		1.253,25	Futures	1	USD	268,06
ESH2	28/12/2011	1.251,38		1.251,00	Futures	2	USD	-28,68
ESH2	29/12/2011	1.254,00		1.256,75	Futures	1	USD	106,72
ESH2	03/01/2012	1.278,50		1.276,00	Futures	1	USD	96,05
ESH2	10/01/2012	1.286,25		1.288,25	Futures	1	USD	78,08
ESH2	11/01/2012	1.286,25		1.281,25	Futures	1	USD	-196,57
ESH2	11/01/2012	1.286,50		1.284,25	Futures	1	USD	-88,46
ESH2	11/01/2012	1.286,50		1.284,25	Futures	1	USD	-88,46
ESH2	11/01/2012	1.287,00		1.287,00	Futures	3	USD	-98,29
ESH2	11/01/2012	1.286,67		1.284,25	Futures	3	USD	-285,03
ESH2	11/01/2012	1.286,25		1.288,75	Futures	1	USD	98,29
ESH2	12/01/2012	1.286,13		1.284,50	Futures	2	USD	-127,59
ESH2	12/01/2012	1.287,25		1.287,25	Futures	4	USD	-225,74
ESH2	12/01/2012	1.287,08		1.288,25	Futures	1	USD	45,8
ESH2	12/01/2012	1.287,08		1.289,25	Futures	1	USD	85,06
ESH2	13/01/2012	1.287,08		1.287,50	Futures	1	USD	16,31
ESH2	13/01/2012	1.283,25		1.277,00	Futures	1	USD	244,7
ESH2	13/01/2012	1.272,75		1.276,00	Futures	1	USD	-127,24
ESH2	13/01/2012	1.276,50		1.280,75	Futures	1	USD	166,39
ESH2	17/01/2012	1.284,00		1.296,25	Futures	1	USD	478,89
ESH2	17/01/2012	1.294,00		1.294,00	Futures	2	USD	-146,6
ESH2	17/01/2012	1.295,00		1.296,50	Futures	1	USD	-58,64
ESH2	17/01/2012	1.294,63		1.291,50	Futures	1	USD	122,17
ESH2	17/01/2012	1.294,63		1.291,25	Futures	1	USD	131,94
ESH2	17/01/2012	1.289,25		1.287,75	Futures	1	USD	58,64
ESH2	18/01/2012	1.287,75		1.289,75	Futures	1	USD	-77,94
ESH2	19/01/2012	1.307,25		1.306,75	Futures	1	USD	19,36
ESH2	19/01/2012	1.307,50		1.309,25	Futures	2	USD	-135,54
ESH2	19/01/2012	1.307,67		1.310,00	Futures	3	USD	-271,09
ESH2	20/01/2012	1.308,63		1.309,50	Futures	2	USD	-67,82
ESH2	20/01/2012	1.307,67		1.305,75	Futures	1	USD	74,28
ESH2	20/01/2012	1.307,78		1.309,50	Futures	1	USD	-66,74
ESH2	20/01/2012	1.307,78		1.309,50	Futures	1	USD	-66,74
ESH2	20/01/2012	1.307,93		1.306,75	Futures	1	USD	45,57
ESH2	23/01/2012	1.307,93		1.310,50	Futures	1	USD	-98,87
ESH2	23/01/2012	1.308,48		1.307,00	Futures	1	USD	56,67
ESH2	23/01/2012	1.308,48		1.311,00	Futures	1	USD	-96,98
ESH2	23/01/2012	1.308,99		1.308,25	Futures	1	USD	28,49
ESH2	23/01/2012	1.309,33		1.311,50	Futures	1	USD	-83,44
ESH2	23/01/2012	1.309,33		1.311,50	Futures	1	USD	-83,44
ESH2	24/01/2012	1.309,91		1.305,25	Futures	1	USD	179,34
ESH2	24/01/2012	1.309,91		1.309,00	Futures	1	USD	35,14
ESH2	26/01/2012	1.306,50		1.320,75	Futures	1	USD	542,03
ESH2	26/01/2012	1.320,63		1.319,75	Futures	1	USD	33,28
ESH2	26/01/2012	1.320,63		1.313,00	Futures	1	USD	290,03
ESH2	30/01/2012	1.299,25		1.297,50	Futures	1	USD	66,74
ESH2	30/01/2012	1.300,50		1.303,50	Futures	2	USD	-228,83
ESH2	30/01/2012	1.302,50		1.304,00	Futures	1	USD	-57,21
ESH2	30/01/2012	1.303,75		1.302,00	Futures	3	USD	-200,23
ESH2	30/01/2012	1.304,25		1.308,00	Futures	1	USD	143,02
ESH2	31/01/2012	1.304,25		1.304,50	Futures	1	USD	9,49
ESH2	31/01/2012	1.306,25		1.306,00	Futures	1	USD	-9,49
ESH2	31/01/2012	1.303,83		1.303,50	Futures	1	USD	12,65
ESH2	31/01/2012	1.303,83		1.303,25	Futures	1	USD	22,14
ESH2	31/01/2012	1.303,83		1.303,25	Futures	1	USD	22,14
ESH2	31/01/2012	1.306,00		1.306,00	Futures	3	USD	-47,43
ESH2	31/01/2012	1.305,67		1.306,25	Futures	1	USD	22,14
ESH2	31/01/2012	1.305,36		1.305,75	Futures	1	USD	14,76
ESH2	01/02/2012	1.305,36		1.305,25	Futures	1	USD	-4,22
ESH2	01/02/2012	1.305,36		1.318,50	Futures	1	USD	498,63
ESH2	01/02/2012	1.317,00		1.321,25	Futures	1	USD	161,29
ESH2	01/02/2012	1.323,75		1.322,50	Futures	1	USD	47,44
ESH2	02/02/2012	1.324,25		1.321,25	Futures	1	USD	114,56
ESH2	09/02/2012	1.349,00		1.346,25	Futures	1	USD	103,48
ESH2	10/02/2012	1.342,75		1.341,75	Futures	1	USD	37,91
ESH2	13/02/2012	1.340,50		1.346,00	Futures	1	USD	-207,48
ESH2	13/02/2012	1.347,25		1.350,25	Futures	1	USD	-113,17
ESH2	15/02/2012	1.353,75		1.352,75	Futures	1	USD	38,19
ESH2	15/02/2012	1.353,75		1.352,25	Futures	1	USD	57,29
ESH2	16/02/2012	1.336,50		1.341,50	Futures	1	USD	-192,57
ESH2	16/02/2012	1.339,08		1.343,00	Futures	3	USD	-452,55
ESH2	16/02/2012	1.343,50		1.346,00	Futures	1	USD	-96,29
ESH2	16/02/2012	1.351,50		1.355,50	Futures	1	USD	-154,06
ESH2	16/02/2012	1.353,00		1.357,00	Futures	1	USD	-154,06
ESH2	17/02/2012	1.353,00		1.357,00	Futures	1	USD	-151,99
ESH2	24/02/2012	1.355,25		1.365,00	Futures	1	USD	363,48
ESH2	28/02/2012	1.357,25		1.369,75	Futures	1	USD	464,55
ESH2	28/02/2012	1.370,25		1.369,25	Futures	1	USD	37,16
ESH2	28/02/2012	1.370,50		1.370,25	Futures	1	USD	9,29
ESH2	28/02/2012	1.370,00		1.367,75	Futures	1	USD	83,62
ESH2	28/02/2012	1.370,50		1.371,50	Futures	1	USD	-37,16
ESH2	29/02/2012	1.373,88		1.375,00	Futures	1	USD	41,84
ESH2	29/02/2012	1.373,69		1.374,50	Futures	1	USD	30,22
ESH2	29/02/2012	1.373,40		1.373,75	Futures	1	USD	13,17
ESH2	29/02/2012	1.373,40		1.371,75	Futures	2	USD	-122,43
ESH2	29/02/2012	1.371,25		1.366,50	Futures	1	USD	176,67
ESH2	29/02/2012	1.368,75		1.367,75	Futures	1	USD	37,19
ESH2	01/03/2012	1.366,25		1.367,75	Futures	1	USD	56,34
ESH2	01/03/2012	1.369,50		1.372,50	Futures	1	USD	-112,68
ESH2	01/03/2012	1.372,50		1.372,50	Futures	3	USD	-75,12
ESH2	01/03/2012	1.372,50		1.372,00	Futures	1	USD	18,78
ESH2	01/03/2012	1.372,50		1.371,00	Futures	1	USD	56,34
ESH2	05/03/2012	1.368,00		1.364,25	Futures	1	USD	141,83
ESH2	05/03/2012	1.362,13		1.364,50	Futures	2	USD	-179,65
ESH2	05/03/2012	1.363,83		1.363,75	Futures	1	USD	-3,15
ESH2	05/03/2012	1.362,50		1.362,50	Futures	3	USD	-100,86
ESH2	06/03/2012	1.363,38		1.356,75	Futures	1	USD	251,84
ESH2	06/03/2012	1.363,38		1.349,25	Futures	1	USD	536,95
ESH2	08/03/2012	1.359,50		1.367,50	Futures	1	USD	302,07
ESH2	09/03/2012	1.365,50		1.367,50	Futures	1	USD	75,81
ESH2	14/03/2012	1.368,75		1.398,25	Futures	1	USD	1.129,23
							Total €	4782,82

NEWS, NOW FORECASTS and STRATEGY on the ASX200 and CORN

From now the Blog offers indications also on the ASX200 Australian Index and on the CORN, where a new PFS has been created on this Commodity, and the results are great, better than on the S&P500! Next days there will be available a yearly boulletin on Corn and S&P500, for the people that are interested to know in advance dates and future possible trends, or for people that are not able to follow the market day by day.

For now I leave you at the results of the test of the PFS on the CORN, results that have surprised also me!

The studies on the Corn have been positives. My test was on the years between 2005-2011, so I tested 7 years.

I’m continuing to study it, with new possible solutions to improve the strategy and the forecast on this market.

What I did is to use the PFS to know in advance the exact data where buy or sell the Corn. I didn’t look at any strategy, price or other studies. I did a simple thing: I bought when the PFS indicated a Low and I sold when the PFS indicate a High.

I tried 2 different ways. A strategy with more trades, to take advance of any evident swing of the PFS and a strategy where I did few trades, only to follow the main trend, not more than 5 or 6 trades per year.

Well, these are the results:

WITH MORE TRADES:

2011: +307 points circa / 10 trades.

2010: +416 points circa / 11 trades.

2009: +83 points circa / 9 trades.

2008: +460 points circa / 8 trades.

2007: +60 points circa / 13 trades.

2006: +31 points circa / 6 trades.

2005: +113 points circa / 14 trades.

WITH FEW TRADES:

2011: +364 points circa / 6 trades

2010: +349 points circa / 6 trades

2009: +88 points circa / 4 trades

2008: +523 points circa / 4 trades

2007: +131 points circa / 4 trades

2006: -54 points circa / 3 trades

2005: +98 points circa / 5 trades

To analyse these results, you need to think that in 2005, 2006, and 2007 the prices were lower, around 190-400 points, for this reason the gains/loses are smaller. In 2009 the range on the price was narrow, with a low volatility than the other years.

I think that it is evident that there is a connection with my cycles and the Corn. We can see very high profit using only a forecasting model, and only in one year, with few trades, we see a lost.

The year 2006 was really strange. The PFS was working perfectly until 15 September, with a new very strong energy changes the path of the Cron, suddenly! Look the chart where there are the dates of the trades indicated by the PFS.

You can see that the trades were very good but there is one trade that was very very bad. This is exceptional, but always it can happen, of course, and we, as traders, have to be aware of this.

Now we can look at the 2011 to understand that in this work there is no stop-loss, only a swing forecast. We can take a SHORT position and know that we will buy 2 months later, but it can happen that after 1 month we are losing a lot of points, to see then that after 2 months market is fallen. Look the 6 trades of the 2011:

You can see that all the trades, AT THE END, were good trades, but then you can manage the trade how do you prefer. You can use this system without any price strategy, statistic at the moment shows that it works very well. BUT you must be aware that in a trade, for example when we buy in January 2011, market go up in February, in gain, but then it fall in March, in loss, and then move up, returning in gain in April, where the PFS suggest to close the trade, with a good profit. You can decide how use this study that statistically seems to work very well, but you must to be wise, because you know that often when we touch a easy system that works, than it stops to work.

I will use it like a swing forecaster, I will buy or sell when it will advice me, and sometime I will look also at possible important prices. Of course I will not bet a lot of money in this system, because you can see that it is a mid-term study, not a daily or intraday study, where the risk is always under control. Then, if you want, you can use key prices to follow the trend.

At the moment, like you know, the PFS indicated to buy in the weekend of 24-27 February, and it is going absolutely well, I’m in profit now of 20 points circa.

This is my personal opinion, but I think that I will have big satisfactions to trade the Corn looking how it worked in the past with the PFS. I need only patience and discipline, like always.

To finish, I want show you the PFS 2008 and the Corn. This has been a unbelievable year for the PFS… look….

PFS & STRATEGY COURSE

Our Newest Forecasting & Trading Course!

The Polarity Factor System

AN INTEGRATED FORECASTING & TRADING STRATEGY

INSPIRED BY W. D. GANN’S MASTER TIME FACTOR

By
Daniele Prandelli

The new book on the PFS and the strategy to trade the S&P500 is finally ready. The course is available with SacredScience Institute. In this course is explained how create the PFS and other studies that I use to make the forecasts published in the Blog. The course give you a Excel file with the complete PFS, algorithm included.

The course pay attention above all at the last 4 months, explaining in the details the reasons of every single trade. Forecasts that I did in the last 8 months are reconstructed, to understand how I was able to do they in advance.

Particular attention is given to the strategy and the prices, because you know that, in my opinion, to make a good forecast is not enough (if you are infallible it's ok, but I'm not infallible). It's very important, I think, to have a good strategy that permit to cut the loss and to leave the profit to run. From my experience this is the only way that permit me to create a winner strategy on the Blog. For this reason I create this course, that permit really to take money from the market because it give indications on how make forecasts but also how take advantage of the forecast work, strategically.

This is the link of the new course:

http://www.sacredscience.com/Prandelli/Prandelli-Polarity-Factor-System.htm

Don't worry, the book is written in a perfect english, not like my english... :)

CIAO

Daniele

We close the year with another good trade!

After the buying in late November that give us good profits, we close December again with a last excellent trade.

In the precedent Posts you can see how I forecasted a rally at the end of the year. In the Private Blog I have waited some days around mid December to enter then Long between 19 and 20 December. This last trade, closed yesterday at 1256 points, permit us to take tens points in profit, with a buying around 1205 points and/or at 1228 points.

So I'm happy about the trading in the last month, with 2 trades Long. What is surprising is the PFS that was forecasting with years in advance the Low in 24-25 Novemebr, and not only a change in trend, but the direction. The PFS, and others studies, indicated an up market in December, and in this way we was able to take advantage from this forecast.

This is the S&P500 Index:

In the first days of January it will be published the last work in collaboration with Brad of the SacredScience, it will be a complete course where I explain exactly how create the PFS, which studies and strategy I use to trade the S&P500, revealing the reasons of every my forecast and trade of the last 9 months.

CIAO

Who believe market can not be forecasted?

The confirmations continue, PFS continues to surprise, it was expected an up push after 24 November, and also in this public Blog I said this... you can see it also from the chart in the precedent Post, where there is a up push from 24 November. And today we go up up up...

Do you continue to believe that it's impossible to forecast the stock market? I never believed it, and after years of work now I know I was right...

Know where market are going and know what is next trend, with high probability to be right, is very useful to be able to make money in a environment where the profits are reserved to a very few people.

CIAO

The PFS forecasted also this descent...

The down push is arrived. This is the forecast that I posted in 14 November:


The descent was forecasted perfectly from the PFS. Yesterday american market was closed, so we will see if today will be the right day to stop, for now, this fall... And then what is next for the PFS?

CIAO

Do we are near a possible up trend?

In the precedent Post, on the Italian Public I Am In Borsa Blog, in November 6th Vito ask me a real update for the Public Blog. This was my answer about the future in 7 November:

AT THE MOMENT the forecast are looking for a weak phase until the second half of November, then it is possible to see a Low for a rally in the end of the year. In these days I wait a down push, but not a crash. For a future up trend it's fundamental consolidate above 1255 points and 1277 points, that are the most important Long Term prices.

The market followed this scenario with a lateral move in the first part of the month and a descent with a down push in the last days, until the second half of November. So, if all should continue to work as forecasted it could become true the scenario for the end of the year, and it could start soon.